How would the absence of the Gandhi name in Pilibhit affect the BJP in 2024?

Overview of the Pilibhit Lok Sabha Constituency

Pilibhit Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh state. The constituency comprises five Vidhan Sabha (legislative assembly) segments. 

The seat is a popular bastion of the Gandhi family and is currently represented by Varun Gandhi, grandson of former PM Indira Gandhi. Varun won the seat on a BJP ticket in 2019 but would probably not contest for Pilibhit constituency after the BJP decided to field Jitin Prasada from the seat. 

The seat was earlier held by Varun Gandhi’s mother Maneka Gandhi for six different terms, as an independent and on a ticket from the BJP and Janata Dal.  

Strength Evaluation  

The Pilibhit seat for decades has been a stronghold of the right associated parties. The constituency has since 1989 given mandate to the Janata Dal and the BJP only. The INC has not enjoyed significant support from the seat and has won only in 1952, 1980 and 1984. 

Strong regional parties including the SP and BSP have never been able to come to power in Pilibhit. 

Talking about state assembly seats, as per the last 2019 Assembly Election, BJP has 4 MLAs and SP has 1 MLA from Pilibhit Parliament Constituency.

Vote Percentage Breakup for Pilibhit Constituency  ( 2009, 2014, 2019 )

Varun Gandhi on a BJP ticket in 2019 beat his closest contender Hemraj Verma from the SP by a margin of more than 2,50,000 votes. He also made his Lok Sabha debut in 2009 by winning from the same seat.  

Maneka Gandhi won a notable victory in the 1999 elections, where she secured over 57.94% of the votes as an independent candidate, which remains one of the biggest wins by an independent candidate in Uttar Pradesh history.

The BJP for 3 subsequent terms from 2009 – 2019 has been able to poll in more than 50% vote from the constituency. 

Religious Demography 

The constituency hosts about 25% muslim population. Hindus constitute around 72% of the population and Sikhs around 4%. 

BJP’s  electoral performance on this seat despite having 25% muslim population is a prime example of the BJP’s strength among muslim voters also, an idea rejected by a plethora of analysts. 

Pilibhit Fight: 2024 General Election 

The fight in Pilibhit constituency is expected to get interesting in the 2024 elections provided BJP’s denial in giving Varun Gandhi a ticket. The BJP has instead decided to field former INC leader Jitin Prasada. 

Prasad has served as MP from both Shahjahanpur and Dhaurara. He served as MoS in the Manmohan Singh government. 

However, Prasada lost subsequent elections in Dhaurahra in 2014 and 2019 as an INC candidate. He was nominated by the Governor as a MLC in UP after he joined the Bharatiya Janata Party. Prasada was subsequently promoted as a cabinet minister in the UP government. 

BJP’s closest contender in Pilibhit, in absence of Varun Gandhi fighting as an independent is expected to be SP’s Bhagwat Saran Gangwar who is five-time MLA from Nawabganj. 

It would be interesting to watch if the BJP would be able to cross the 50% vote share mark, 4th time in a row.