How would the BJP fare in Alwar without the Mahants in 2024? 

Overview of the Alwar Lok Sabha Constituency

Alwar Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 25 Lok Sabha  constituencies in Rajasthan state. The Alwar Lok Sabha constituency comprises eight Vidhan Sabha segments. The seat became vacant in December 2023 after the elected MP Mahant Balaknath resigned from the post to contest the 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections from the Tijara constituency. 

Mahant Balaknath, a  Mahant of the Nath sect of Hinduism is a popular spiritual and political leader in Rajasthan. He successfully contested the Alwar Lok Sabha seat by defeating the INC leader – former MoS Bhanwar Jitendra Singh by a margin of over 3 lakh votes in 2019. 

Strength Evaluation 

The Alwar seat since independence has witnessed a major INC presence except for a few terms when BJP ruled the place. There were a couple of terms in 1962 and 1989 when an independent MP and Janata Party respectively held power in Alwar. 

However, the major player in Alwar has always been the INC with the BJP seeping in on and off since the 1990’s. 

Talking about the assembly seats within the constituency, 5 out of the 8 seats are held by the INC while 3 seats are with the BJP. 

Vote Percentage Breakup for Alwar Constituency  ( 2009, 2014, 2019 )

Although multiple national-level parties contest on the Alwar seat, only the INC and BJP hold major influence on the seat. 

The seat which was held by INC’s Bhanwar Jitendra Singh since 2009 seat was bagged by BJP leader Mahant Chand Nath, the religious mentor of Mahant Balaknath in 2014. Chand Nath defeated his INC rival by a margin of more than 2,50,000 votes. 

Chand Nath’s demise in 2017 led to a bypoll on the Alwar seat in 2018 where INC candidate Karan Singh Yadav secured a win. However, he did not hold on to power for long and was defeated by Balaknath in 2019. 

Religious Demography 

Muslims constitute almost 15% of the population in Alwar while Hindus comprise around 82% of the inhabitants. The politics on the parliamentary seat has major influence from the residing Yadav community and that is reflected in the fact that a Yadav was elected for 6 terms in the past. 

Alwar Fight 2024 

With the absence of the heavyweight leader Mahant Balaknath, the politics of the region is back to a contest between the Yadavs. While the BJP has fielded Union Minister and incumbent RS MP Bhupender Yadav from the seat, Congress is going with Lalit Yadav, MLA from Mundawar Assembly constituency in Alwar. 

The BJP has been successful in keeping the vote share above 60% in Alwar for two consecutive elections and is hoping for a third term. A fight between a union minister and a relatively new local MLA would be interesting. 

Let’s see which Yadav grabs the seat in the absence of the Mahants.