Would Jitan Ram Manjhi finally be able to win Gaya as part of NDA?

Overview of the Gaya Lok Sabha Constituency

Gaya Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar state. Presently, The constituency comprises the six Vidhan Sabha seats. 

Presently, the constituency is led by Janata Dal (United) candidate Vijay Manjhi who was voted in 2019 after he defeated Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) candidate former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi by a margin of more than 1,50,000 votes. 

Strength Evaluation

The grand old party INC secured power on and off for a few decades after independence. The last the INC was able to hold the seat was back in the elections in 1984 after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. 

The next decade after the 1989 elections saw the Janata Dal consume power in the constituency which was followed by a full term by the BJP during the erstwhile Vajpayee wave in 1999. 

The RJD held power post BJP in 2004 but was yet again soundly defeated by the BJP in 2009 and 2014 elections. Subsequently, in 2019, JD(U), a BJP ally represented the NDA in the seat and won. 

Vote Percentage Breakup for Gaya Constituency  ( 2009, 2014, 2019 )

The 2009 election saw BJP’s Hari Manjhi defeat RJD’s Ramji Manjhi by a margin of more than 60,000 votes. The erstwhile Modi wave in 2014 led to the gap of votes widen tremendously in favor of the BJP when the incumbent MP Hari Manjhi against the same candidate Ramji Manjhi, now backed by the JD(U) by a margin of over a lakh votes. 

The JD(U) came in cahoots with the BJP post the 2014 elections when it rejoined the NDA. The Gaya seat was then represented in 2019 by the JD(U) by its candidate Vijay Manjhi who defeated HAM(S) candidate former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi. 

Religious Demography 

The two major religious groups in the constituency are Hindus and Muslims with the former comprising around 88% of the populace, while the latter making up 11% of it. 

Gaya Fight: 2024 

Jitan Ram Manjhi, the 79-year-old former CM would be contesting for the 4th time for the Gaya seat, now as part of the NDA backed by the JD(U). 

He himself was part of the JD(U) and was a cabinet member in the Nitish Kumar government but was expelled after the 2014 elections after which he formed his own party. 

Jitan Ram Manjhi has been unable to win the seat till now without the support of both the BJP and JD(U). However, now as a part of the NDA and being backed by colleague turned  rival Nitish Kumar, Manjhi’s fortunes can take a turn for the good. 

Manjhi will be going against RJD’s Kumar Sarvjeet, two-time Bodh Gaya MLA. Interestingly,  In 1991, Manjhi contested the  Lok Sabha elections against Sarvajeet’s father, Rajesh Kumar.

Jitan Ram Manjhi’s strong caste support and the fact that he is being backed by heavyweight politicians make things seem bright for him.