Would the BJP able to keep the Hasan’s on the sidelines in Kairana?

Overview of the Kairana Lok Sabha Constituency

Kairana Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. Presently, Kairana Lok Sabha constituency comprises five Vidhan Sabha segments 

Currently represented in the parliament by BJP leader Pradeep Kumar Chaudhary, son of Late Master Kanwarpal Singh who was elected MLA 3 times.Chaudhary was elected to the Seventeenth Legislative Assembly of Uttar Pradesh in 2017 at Gangoh Assembly constituency as a member of BJP which he quit to contest the Lok Sabha elections from Kairana. 

Strength Evaluation 

The constituency since its establishment in 1962 has not been kind to the INC, having elected the congress for only 2 terms. While the seat has been held for 3 terms by the BJP, the voters have often brought in local state parties, majorly the BSP and RLD. 

The strength of local state parties resonate in the fact that 3 out of 5 Vidhan sabha seats are held by SP and RLD, and are held by the BJP. 

Vote Percentage Breakup for Kairana Constituency  ( 2009, 2014, 2019 )

The BJP has flexed its strength in Kairana since 2009 itself when the party’s candidate Hukum Singh lost to BSP’s Hasan candidate by a margin of less than 25000 votes. BJP successfully contested the 2014 polls after its candidate Hukum Singh polled in more than 50% of the vote, while the SP candidate Nahid Hasan could only bring in about 30%. 

The 2019 election did lead to BJP winning again after more than 50% of the vote was polled in BJP’s favor. However, a major trend observed was the rapid increase in the vote share of the SP, whose candidate Tabassum Begum Hasan brought in around 42% of the vote. 

Religious Demography 

Interestingly, BJP’s recent electoral success in an area where muslim voters make around 53% of the population is rare. Hindus make up around 53% of the population and Sikhs make around 1% of the population. 

Kairana Fight – 2024

Individuals surnamed Hasan, reportedly having affiliation with the powerful Hasan clan in Kiarana have held power multiple times on tickets from different parties. In the 2019 contest, the BJP candidate beat SP’s Tabassum Hasan with a margin of around 90,000 votes. 

2024 election will see Ikra Hasan, another Hasan prodigy representing the SP fighting against the incumbent BJP MP Pradeep Chaudhary. The constituency for a fact has been kind to the local parties and the Hasan’s in the past. Moreover, the Ram temple angle might polarize muslim voters against the BJP that might give the edge to the SP this time. 

However, the BJP has already risen above various electoral analyses of the past and might do it again in Kairana in 2024.