Would the BSP cut through enough Muslim votes to benefit the BJP in Saharanpur?

Overview of the Saharanpur Lok Sabha Constituency

Saharanpur Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The constituency for decades has voted in favor of regional national parties, mainly the BSP. While major national parties like the INC did hold the seat for decades after the independence, the BJP has not been entirely successful in Saharanpur. 

Saharanpur Lok Sabha constituency comprises 6 assembly seats. 

The constituency is currently represented by BSP’s Haji Fazlur Rehman who beat BJP’s erstwhile incumbent MP Raghav Lakhanpal by a margin of only 25000 votes. 

Strength Evaluation 

Saharanpur maintained loyalty to the INC ever since Independence till the post-emergency election of 1977 after which it went on to the Janta Party and its factions for two terms. It was held by the INC once again in 1984 after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. 

However, the Saharanpur populace never brought back the INC again and sought confidence in the Janata Dal and the BJP for the next decade, post which the regional heavyweight parties including the SP and the BSP held major sway except for the election in 2014 when the Modi wave led the BJP candidate Raghav Lakhanpal to register victory which he later lost to BSP in the 2019 elections. 

Vote Percentage Breakup for Saharanpur Constituency  ( 2009, 2014, 2019 )

Interestingly in the 2009 general elections, neither the BJP nor the INC were major contenders in Saharanpur. Jagdish Singh Rana of the BSP beat its closest contender in the SP by almost a 10% vote margin. 

In  2014, the BJP candidate Raghav Lakhanpal Sharma under the erstwhile Modi wave beat the INC’s Imran Masood by a margin of almost 65000 votes. However, his parliament stint did not last long and he was ousted by SP-BSP’s joint candidate Haji Fazlur Rehman in 2019 by a margin of only 25000 votes. 

Religious Demography 

The Saharanpur seat holds a major Muslim populace constituting more than 45% of the total population. Hindus are around 50% of the entire population and Sikhs and Jains constitute 1% each of the population. 

Saharanpur Fight: 2024 

The political battleground of Saharanpur is full of analytical uncertainties owing to minute voter swing witnessed. It is indeed going to be a tough contest given that prominent faces like Congress’s Imran Masood, BJP’s Raghav Lakhanpal, and BSP’s candidate Majid Ali are contesting. 

A major Muslim populace in Saharanpur led the BSP-SP candidate to victory the previous time. With Congress representing the INDI block in 2024, which the SP is a part of, and BSP going solo, the Muslim vote is set to be divided, which would surely give an edge to BJP’s candidate. 

However, if the traditional BSP voters poll in for the INDI block, that would render BSP’s role of being a vote splitter useless, and that would surely affect the BJP candidates’ electoral performance.